Author Topic: Preview 7: Demographics  (Read 5339 times)

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Offline Defendi

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Preview 7: Demographics
« on: March 01, 2006, 10:01:41 PM »
Demographics

It is often important to know just how talented or powerful non-player characters are in a certain area.  This is especially true for spell users, whom the players often seek to hire for knowledge, spells, and wisdom.  For the most part, we?ve tried to include enough information, where possible, for a GM to determine the level of the greatest characters of note in an area.  However, for most of the world, this level of detail is beyond the scope of a campaign guide.

When these kinds of demographics are needed, use the following guidelines.  The chart below shows how many people need to be in an area to produce a single character of a given level.  The difference in the columns reflects the fact that certain groups are rarer or more common than others.

Determine the rough population of the sample area, usually the area in which the characters search.  Compare this population to the chart to determine the highest level character on the appropriate column.  If the sample area is a city, multiply the population by five to include the villages and farmlands that directly support it.  The number for each tier on the chart is the minimum population necessary to produce a character of that approximate level.

If you reach the top of the chart, divide the population of the sample by the population of the last entry.  This is the number of ultra-high level characters living in that area.  If you need to know the number of people of lower level in the area, each tier on the table has twice the number of people as the tier below it, as a rule of thumb .

One final note.  These numbers are merely guidelines.  If a country would have three ultra-high level characters of a certain type (say clergy), then those three people have to live somewhere.  Comparing the population of their city or village to this chart likely wouldn?t produce anyone even remotely near their level.  Because of this, a GM is encouraged to play with these numbers to suit his game.  The most powerful mage in a country might live in a remote location, especially if his profession is banned by the local church.  Just because he can make the skies weep blood doesn?t mean he can?t live in a village.

Example 1: Mat wishes to find a healer for a fallen party member.  His GM, Josh, determines the healer needs to be 20th level to save his friend.  Mat heads for the city of Belm, which has a population of 38,881 people.  Because this is a city, Josh multiplies its population by 5 (194,405).  Mat?s only searching Belm, but it takes four farmers to support each citizen in the city and this is his real population sample.

Josh compares this population to the column for church spell users.  A population of 64,000 produces a church spell user of 19th-21st level.  It takes 128,000 to produce one of the next tier up, 256,000 for the tier after that.  This means that the highest level church caster in the city is probably 22nd-24th level.  There are probably two casters of the level Mat needs.

Of course, Josh determines that only about one in three church spell uses can heal with the necessary skill.  Josh rolls randomly and decides that Mat got lucky.  Now he just has to determine what the Church will want in return.

However, Belm is the capital of Ludremon.  Josh could reasonably declare that that there are many more spell users here.  In fact, the most powerful Ludremonian member of each order of the Human Church is likely here at some point during the year.  Most of them probably own a residence within the city, so if Josh wanted to fudge these numbers to allow for much more powerful characters, it would be quite logical.

Example 2: Later, Josh needs to determine the effects of a deadly plague on a small town.  This isn?t the Gray Death and the plague can be healed, but Josh wants an idea of what kind of magic might be brought to bear to heal or contain the plague.

The town in question has a population of approximately 2,000 people.  Since this is an urban area, Josh multiplies this by 5, resulting in 10,000 total.  The Human Church is in power here, so non-Church magic is not condoned.

Consulting the chart, Josh sees that this area probably contains one church spell user of 10-12 level and two church spell users of a level below that (1st-9th).  There is probably only one banned spell user in the area, likely between 1st and 9th level (the lowest tier on this column of the chart is 7th-9th, but since nothing can be below it, this includes everything up to 9th level.)

The plague will tear through this area with little or nothing to slow it down.

[Author?s note: For ease or use, this section will probably contain a table that tackles the same information from the opposite direction, showing population ranges and the highest level person in the area of each type.  For determining the total number of people of a given type, however, this chart is easier to use (since you can readily see the tiers).  That?s why we started with this one.  Plus, with this one it?s easier to include the level data for multiple systems.  The second chart will need to be custom built for each system during statting, whereas with this chart, we need only delete irrelevant columns.]
Lvl ICELvl d20PeasantsCraftsmenAcademicsMerchantsetc...
1-31-21577
4-63-42101515
7-95-64203030
10-127-88405050
13-159-101580100100
16-1811-1230150200200
19-2113-1465300400400
22-2415-16125650800800
25-2717-182501,2501,6001,600
28-3019-205002,5003,2003,200
31-3321-221,0005,0006,3006,300
34-3623-242,00010,00012,50012,500
37-3925-264,00020,00025,00025,000
40-4227-288,00040,00050,00050,000
43-4529-3015,00080,000100,000100,000
46-4831-3230,000150,000200,000200,000
49-5033-3465,000300,000450,000450,000
51+35+125,000650,000900,000900,000
                                                                     

Banned spell users are only relevant if the local church forbids certain types of magic.  In areas where the magic needed is condoned (or at least ignored) by the church, use the Condoned Spell User?s column.
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Offline Grafton

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2006, 09:18:31 PM »
First off, great idea! This will be a wonderful help to those of us that love to run off the cuff and/or love to modify things. ;D

But...I don't follow your examples with the chart presented. For example, your example #2 I read as indexing 10,000 under the Academic category but I get lvl 33 for ICE which is way above what you stated in the example.

Am I reading your example wrong or am I reading the chart wrong?

In addition, I see no difference between Academic and Mercants fields so why have them different?

Keep up the good work. Good Luck, Grafton
« Last Edit: March 02, 2006, 09:21:56 PM by Grafton »

Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2006, 06:14:56 AM »
1)  That's cause it's using the "church spell casters" column, which didn't fit when I cropped the table for posting.  Remeber, most of these are peices of text near how they are to appear in the game (or the wirter's bible).  They aren't written specifcally for the list.  :)  Write now its in the "etc." section.

2)  That combining columns thing is the sort of thing you do last, when you are sure you are done fiddling with numbers.  :)
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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2006, 10:12:20 AM »
What a fantastic guideline to include in a Setting document.  Not only is a great as a resource for determining what the PC's can find, it also conveys the relative power of the PC's against their environment.  Are they big fish in a small pond (and can therefore throw their weight around), or not?  One furstration I always had with the Forgotten Realms is that their seemed to be an Archmage or Lord Paladin under every rock.  Made my PC's always look for an NPC to resolve the conflict rather than risk their own skins.

Can you share (maybe in the developer's thread) what you used for baseline assumptions in creating this table.  I'd love to "copy" the idea for my own settings, but would need to know the underlying assumptions to make it an accurate fit.

Offline mocking bird

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2006, 10:35:59 AM »
Nice concept.  Also fairly easily adjustable for different magic settings.  If I had a dime every time a player went into a town looking for some special healing or a magic item...

As a side note - moderator, moerator, lots of green start - and still no nick in blue?
Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.    Buddha

Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2006, 10:50:25 AM »
I don't know what that last sentence meant.  :)
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Offline mocking bird

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2006, 11:19:35 AM »
Check their nicknames in 'whose on line' - Rasyr is in Red, Lazvon in Blue, ICEBruce in red...
Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.    Buddha

Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2006, 11:36:21 AM »
I guess I don't know what those colors mean.  :)

Smiling DM.  My premises were simple.  I figured out about how many people it took to produce a single member of a group (a lot of these come from Midieval Demographics Made Easy).  I figured a minimum of four peasants to support a single city dweller.  If figured only about half the people in a group made the next teir up as the teir before.  Other than that, you can figure out most of my base numbers just by looking at that first row.  I figured that about one out of every four hundred church members could cast spells.  For condoned spell users I used the same final number (which is 1 spell caster per 4000 people).  For banned spell users I used one in ten thousand, since the Church hunts those and kills then when it can.

Any other premise questions?
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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2006, 09:03:59 AM »
No further questions - I appreciate your answer.  It seems it is the ratio of spell-casters to "normals" that is a key premise, especially with the setting aspect of "condoned" and "banned" casters.

In my settings, I have run the mix a fair bit richer given that 3 quarter of the RMSS professions are some form of spell-caster, at least in the core rules.  As a result, you get a more high-fantasy feel.  In "echoes", you are defiinitely going for "grit", so I can appreciate the ratios you've chosen.


Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2006, 10:31:20 AM »
Assuming you accept the other premises, you can still use the chart.  You'll just need to find a column that has the ratio you want.  :)
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Offline Dr. Joe

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2006, 10:45:25 AM »
If you reach the top of the chart, divide the population of the sample by the population of the last entry.  This is the number of ultra-high level characters living in that area.  If you need to know the number of people of lower level in the area, each tier on the table has twice the number of people as the tier below it, as a rule of thumb .

I don't get it.  :-[

For example, if you have a village of 500, the highest level peasant is lvl 28-30 (tier 10). Using the rule in the last sentence, doubling the numbers and summing up leads to 210-1 = 1023 peasants in tiers 1 to 10.

And this is only the peasants. If you add the numbers from the other columns for the village of 500, you'll get an even larger population???

Am I misunderstanding something here?

Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2006, 04:02:14 AM »
It's a rule of thumb.  It's not a firm number, it's just an aproximation to get you started.
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Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2006, 04:07:07 AM »
If you want to divide all the numbers by two, you'd be closer, but once we start adding in all the different things you have to take into account, it gets too complex.  This is just a quick and dirty rule to figure out if there are two 15th healing types in a town after you've made one mad.  What I do when I design a location is use it to figure out a ballpark figure for special people (like nobles and wizards) and take all those people out of the general population numbers.  I never calculate common citizens by level, I've never found a need.
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Offline Defendi

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2006, 05:42:21 AM »
Doh!

I'm sorry.  I'm at work and customers came in during the posting.  :)  That's why the first two points were broken up, and rereading, I realize my first and most important point was lost completely (not sure if I misclicked or if I just didn't get it down in the confusion.

You are looking at 500 people, but that's the MINIMUM for characters of that tier.  The next tier requires 1,000 people, so you have a range for the tier you are looking at of 500-999 people.  So 1023, plus the others, is more than the maximum, but it's much closer than you thought.  Plus, most of the people that die come from the low levels of the peasant pool, since more skilled people survive better and are often more protected than others.

Sorry for the confusion.  I could go on a long time on my premises and theories that went into this, but I suspect I've gone on longer than you needed for your answer.  Let me know if you have another question you'd like me to carpet bomb.  :)
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Offline Dr. Joe

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2006, 11:48:44 AM »
Thanks for your response! I just wanted to make sure I didn't fail to see the obvious.

When I got EoH, I was really happy to see demographics combined with NPC level info (and the references), but I realized  that it can't be used generically to build a population directly. I like the bit about too complex - if I get the mathematics worked out... ;)

Offline Dr. Joe

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Re: Preview 7: Demographics
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2006, 07:07:15 AM »
Ok, the easiest solution goes like this: Assume the table indicates probabilities for finding a person of a certain class and level - this can be achieved by calculating the inverse of the numbers in the table. The problem is that these inverses are not adequately normalized, they are only proportional to the "real" probability.

Now, assuming the table is complete, every person in any population must have a certain class and level - which means the sum of all probabilities needs to be 1.0. There is an additional condition, namely that for every column, tier i+1 has half as many individuals as tier i, in other words, the probabilities decrease by a factor of two in consecutive tiers.

If the numbers in tier i are normalized to sum up to 2-i, the sum over all classes and tiers is the desired 1.0 (well, almost, but lets ignore limits to infinity...).

To get back to the easy to use minimum population supporting an individual of a certain class and level, simply take the inverse of the normalized probabilities.

Example: Tier 3 for levels 7-9

Original:                         4      20      30      30     150     150    160        40       300      4000        10000     4000
Prob. proportional to: 1/4    1/20   1/30  1/30  1/150 1/150   1/160   1/40    1/300   1/4000    1/10000    1/4000
Normalized to 1/8:   0.075 0.015 0.01  0.01  0.002 0.002   0.0019 0.0075  0.001  0.000075 0.00003   0.000075
Inverse:                         13     66      100   100    500     500    533      133      1000    13333      33333      13333

By checking this and one other tier, looks like the numbers in the original table need to be multiplied by a factor of around 3.5.

Sound reasonable?  ???