I had a house rule about this, that ended up convincing people to simply NOT FIRE into melees unless they were swarming a dragon or something.
Base chance to hit a given target = 100/# of targets within *ONE HANDED* melee range of intended)
This is based on length of weapons and length of stride. 1 handed weapons are about the length of one step for the person wielding them, regardless of that person's size. Few people will take more than one step between the time the missile leaves the firer and the time it impacts the victim. Feel free to "add a step" to the field of fire for every 100' of distance the missile travels.
Size modifiers - Large = x2, Huge = x4. So if you have a human with 1 handed weapons, another with 2 handed weapons, a giant (Large) with 1 handed weapons and a dragon (Huge), you have 1+1/2+2+4=7.5 targets.
100/7.5=13.33, so
01-13 1H Human
14-20 2H Human
21-47 1H Giant
48-00 Dragon
and whatever target you roll gets your full on attack. The only thing you can do to improve your chances of hitting is to have a high IN. If it's 98, giving you a +9, and you're trying for the giant, then
01-10 1H Human
11-14 2H Human
15-50 1H Giant
51-00 Dragon
as you added 9 to your chances of hitting the giant and took 3 each from the others available.
Fine and good where the sheer amount of sky your opponent blocks out makes him an easy target. Where it gets ugly is when they're all the same size:
01-14 1H Human (Friendly)
15-28 1H Human (Friendly)
29-42 1H Human (Friendly)
43-50 2H Human (Friendly)
51-64 1H Human
65-78 1H Human
79-92 1H Human
93-00 2H Human
If you're trying for the 2nd 1H non-friendly and you have +9 for IN, then
01-12 1H Human (Friendly)
13-24 1H Human (Friendly)
25-37 1H Human (Friendly)
38-43 2H Human (Friendly)
44-56 1H Human
57-79 1H Human
80-92 1H Human
93-00 2H Human
and that's using the remainders to the shooter's advantage instead of against him. Note that there's still a 2 in 5 chance of shooting one of your own.
The net result of this house rule was an opinion among my gamers that firing into a crowd was just an idiotic thing to do. Kind of like in real life.