Howdy arakish,
I stated that the fence might deflect the round. There are a lot of factors that effects the round going down range and hitting the target. The military channel has done a couple of programs on sniper training, which IIRC, mentioned the fact that hitting a leaf, twig, or other object could cause the round to miss the target. There was a show, not sure which channel, that was about Special Operation missions and in one episode the star of the show mentioned that he had to make sure he had a clear shot. If something got in the way then the round might miss the target or not be a kill.
Yes, I've heard of Top Shot but I haven't watched the program.
And you are right. It would depend on how far down range the target was from the object the bullet might hit. The further down range the target is, the more deflection. In that Top Shot episode, the target that blew up was only about ten yards beyond the chain link fence. If the target have been 50 yards behind the fence, then the bullet may not have hit the target at all.
However, out of the some 100+ shots taken by the 10 or so marksmen (each got 10 shots), only one bullet hit the chain link fence when they looked at the fence later trying to figure out why the only one target blew up. There were no dents, bends, breaks, or other evidence that any other bullet hit the fence. Thus, I would say there is a less than 1% chance of a bullet hitting the wire of a chain link fence.
Of course, this is for a sniper. For someone who is simply emptying a belt or clip of rounds from an automatic rifle, I would say there is a better chance of a bullet sitting the fence. Maybe 5%?
My fault (or what do they say now? "my bad"?). I did not clarify how far behind the fence the target was. Sorry.
rmfr